Sept. Industrial Output Gains Are Above-Average

The Federal Reserve released data today on U.S. industrial production for the month of September with the following highlights: 

1.  Industrial production increased in September by 0.2% on a monthly basis and 3.2% on an annual basis. 

2. For the third quarter (July-September) industrial production increased an annual rate of 5.1%.

3. Manufacturing output increased 0.4% in September to a level that was 3.9% higher than a year ago.

4. The output of manufactured durable goods increased 0.6% in September to 7.9% above its year-earlier level.  

5. Mining output increased by 0.8% in September to 5.2% above its year-ago level.  

6. The September industrial production index at 94.2 is 12.8% above the cyclical low in June 2009 of 83.5, and is 6.4% below the cyclical high of 100.7 in December 2007 (see chart above). 

MP: On an annual basis, the 3.2% growth in industrial production through September is above the 2.2% average growth rate since 1973, and the 3.9% growth in manufacturing output is above its 2.6% average rate.  The above-average growth in industrial output through the third quarter this year runs counter to the claims that we are entering another recession. 

Update: Brian Wesbury and Bob Stein are predicting real GDP growth of 3.5% in the third quarter, and the 5.1% annualized growth in industrial output during the third quarter would certainly support that prediction.